Applied Econometrics: Politics, Sports, Microeconomics (ECON 438)

Fall 2026 | Yale University

Ray C. Fair

This course has an applied econometrics focus. The topics include voting behavior, betting markets, sports, and various issues in microeconomics. The requirements are three empirical papers. The first, worth 20 percent of the grade, is an extension of an existing article, where some of the results are duplicated and then extended. A voting example is provided if a student wants to use it. The second, worth 30 percent of the grade, is more of the same but with no example provided. The third, worth 50 percent of the grade, is a more original paper within the range of topics covered in the course, where data are collected and analyzed using whatever econometric techniques are relevant. For seniors this paper can possibly be the beginning of a senior essay. The aim of the course is to get students doing original empirical research using econometric tools. It is also to prepare students to read empirical papers in economics and other social sciences.

General

Course Overview

Readings

September 2, 4, 9: Econometric Methodology and Tools

[\c] Case, Karl E., Ray C. Fair, and Sharon M. Oster. Principles of Economics, Chapter 36: “Critical Thinking About Research.”

[\c] Fair, Ray C. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things. 2nd ed. Princeton: Princeton University Press, Chapters 1–2.

[\c] Oster, Emily. “Here’s Why It’s So Impossible to Get Reliable Diet Advice from the News.” Slate, 2013.

[\o] Data from Slate paper: Slate data.

Your econometrics textbook (for ongoing review throughout the course).

[\o] Correlations: Sodas Are Bad.

[\o] Correlations: Vegan Is So-So.

[\o] Blood Pressure: Take Pills at Night.

[\o] Smith, Gary. Luck in Baseball

[\o] Smith, Gary. Data Mining.

[\o] Fraud

[\o] COVID-19 Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT).

[\o] Smith, Gary. Bayes’ Rule and Simpson’s Paradox.

[\o] Correlations: Steps Are Good.

[\o] Correlations: Fast Steps Are Even Better.

[\o] Correlations: 4,000 Steps Are Good.

[\o] Correlations: 7,000 Steps Are Fine; No Need for 10,000.

[\o] RCT Retirement Communities: Fast Steps Are Good.

September 14, 16: Explaining and Predicting Voting Behavior

[\o] Fair, Ray C. “The Economy and Voting Behavior.” February 22, 2017.

[\o] Voting Site

[\o] Vote Equation through 1960: Equation

[\o] Pitfalls

[\o] Coattail Effect

[\o] Fair, Ray C. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2nd ed., Chapters 3–4.

[\o] Fair, Ray C. Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update.

[\o] Fair, Ray C. Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations. American Journal of Political Science 53, no. 1 (2009): 55–72.

[\o] Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model SUR

September 21, 23: Explaining Congressional Voting Behavior

[\a] Washington, Ebonya L. “Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers’ Voting on Women’s Issues.” American Economic Review 98, no. 1 (2008): 311–332.

September 28, 30: Topics in Sports Economics 1

[\a] Fair, Ray C., and John F. Oster. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency." Journal of Sports Economics 8, no. 1 (2007): 3–18.

[\a] Murray, Thomas J. “Examining the Relationship Between Scheduling and Outcomes in the National Football League.” Journal of Sports Economics 19, no. 5 (2018): 696–724.

[\a] Nardinelli, Clark, and Curtis Simon. “Customer Racial Discrimination in the Market for Memorabilia: The Case of Baseball.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, no. 3 (1990): 575–595.

[\a] Bradbury, John Charles, and Joshua D. Pitts. “Full Cost-of-Attendance Scholarships and College Choice: Evidence from NCAA Football.” Journal of Sports Economics (2018).

[\a] Guo, Mengmeng, and Shihe Fu. “Running with a Mask? The Effect of Air Pollution on Marathon Performance.” Journal of Sports Economics (2019).

[\a] Gan, Chen, Taotao Deng, and Weishu Zhao. “City Marathon Events and the Tourism Industry: A Quasi-Natural Experiment.” Journal of Sports Economics (2023).

[\a] Reilly, Patrick, John L. Solow, and Peter von Allmen. “When the Stars Are Out: The Impact of Missed Games on NBA Television Audiences.” Journal of Sports Economics (2023).

Probit, Logit, Tobit Models

October 5, 7: Topics in Sports Economics 2

[\a] Fair, Ray C. “Estimated Age Effects in Baseball.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 4, no. 1 (2008).

[\a] Solow, John L., and Anthony C. Krautmann. “Do You Get What You Pay For? Salary and Ex Ante Player Value in MLB.” Journal of Sports Economics (2020).

[\a] Ganz, Scott C., and Kieran Allsop. “A Mere Fan Effect on Home-Court Advantage.” Journal of Sports Economics 25, no. 1 (2024): 30–53.

October 12, 14: Political Betting Markets

[\o] Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. “Prediction Markets.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 2 (2004): 107–126.

[\o] Rhode, Paul W., and Koleman S. Strumpf. “Historical Presidential Betting Markets.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, no. 2 (2004): 127–142.

[\a] Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. “Partisan Impacts on the Economy.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, no. 2 (2007): 807–829.

[\o] Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. “Party Influence in Congress and the Economy.” Working paper, 2006.

[\a] Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. “The ‘Standard Error’ of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election.” AEA Papers and Proceedings (2018).

[\a] Diercks, Anthony M., Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan H. Wright. “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets.” NBER Working Paper No. 34702, 2026.

October 19, 26, 28: Announcement Effects on Financial Markets

[\o] Knight, Brian. “Are Policy Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices?” Journal of Public Economics 90 (2006): 751–773.

[\a] Shon, John J. “Do Stock Returns Vary with Campaign Contributions?” (2006).

[\o] Fisman, Raymond. “Estimating the Value of Political Connections.” American Economic Review 91, no. 4 (2001): 1095–1102.

[\a] Fisman, David, Ray Fisman, Julia Galef, and Rakesh Khurana. “Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney.” (2006).

[\o] Wagner, Alexander F., Richard J. Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler. “Unequal Rewards to Firms.” AEA Papers and Proceedings (2018).

[\o] Fair, Ray C. “Shock Effects on Stock, Bonds, and Exchange Rates.” Journal of International Money and Finance 22 (2003): 207–341.

November 2, 4: Natural Experiments

[\a] Gentzkow, Matthew, and Jesse M. Shapiro. “Preschool Television Viewing and Adolescent Test Scores.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, no. 1 (2008).

[\a] Jensen, Robert, and Emily Oster. “The Power of TV.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124, no. 3 (2009): 1057–1094.

[\a] Barreca, Alan I., et al. “Saving Babies?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (2011).

[\a] Dell, Melissa, and Pablo Querubin. “Nation Building Through Foreign Intervention.” Quarterly Journal of Economics (2018).

[\o] Meriläinen, Jaakko, and Matti Mitrunen. “The Loser’s Long Curse.” Comparative Political Studies (2023).

November 9, 11: Grades, Wine, and Extramarital Affairs

[\o] Hamermesh, Daniel S., and Amy Parker. “Beauty in the Classroom.” Economics of Education Review 24 (2005).

[\a] Durden, Garey C., and Larry V. Ellis. “The Effects of Attendance on Student Learning.” American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings (1995): 343–346.

[\a] Ashenfelter, Orley, David Ashmore, and Robert Lalonde. “Bordeaux Wine Vintage Quality and the Weather.” Chance (1995): 7–14.

[\c] Fair, Ray C. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Chapter 6.

[\a] Gracner, Tadeja, et al. “Exposure to Sugar Rationing…” Science (2024).

[\a] Fair, Ray C. “A Theory of Extramarital Affairs.” Journal of Political Economy 86, no. 1 (1978).

November 16, 18: Minimum Wage and Policy Discontinuities

[\o] Card, David, and Alan B. Krueger. “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania” American Economic Review 84, no. 4 (1994): 772–793.

[\a] OPTIONAL: Jardim, Katerina, et al. “Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence From Seattle” NBER Working Paper No. 23532 (2018).

[\a] Clemens, Jeffrey, and Michael R. Strain. “The Short-Run Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the American Community Survey” (2017).

[\a] Schanzenbach, Diane Whitmore, et al. “Raising State Minimum Wages, Lowering Commuinity College\Enrollment,” NBER Working Paper No. 31540 (2023).

[\a] Carpenter, Christopher, and Carlos Dobkin. “The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1, no. 1 (2009): 164–182.

November 30, December 2: Harvard Admissions Debate

[\a] Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom. “Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard.” (2020).

[\o] Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom. “Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions.” (2020).

[\o] OPTIONAL: Peter Arcidiacono's report, October 16, 2017

[\o] OPTIONAL: David Card's report, December 15, 2017

[\o] OPTIONAL: Arcidiacono's rebuttal to Card's report

[\o] OPTIONAL: Card's rebuttal to Arcidiacono's rebuttal

[\o] OPTIONAL: Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom, Divergent: The Time Parh of Legacy and Athlete Admissions at Harvard, NBER Working Paper 26315, September 2019.

December 7, 9: Student Presentations

Possible Other Readings

[\o] Chetty, Raj, et al. The Economic Impacts of COVID-19, September 2020.

[\a] Goodman, Joshua, Oded Gurantz, and Jonathan Smith. Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps. NBER Working Paper No. 24945, August 2018.

[\o] Almond, Douglas, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., Amanda E. Kowalski, and Heidi Williams. Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care: Evidence from At-risk Newborns. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2010.

[\a] Almond, Douglas, et al. Reply. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011.

[\o] Guthold, Regina, Gretchen A. Stevens, Leanne M. Riley, and Fiona C. Bull. Worldwide Trends in Insufficient Physical Activity from 2001 to 2016. WHO Study, 2018.

[\o] Wiebe, Douglas J., et al. Association Between the Experimental Kickoff Rule and Concussion Rates in Ivy League Football. Journal of the American Medical Association, 2018.

[\a] Chen, M. Keith, Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr., and Edward H. Kaplan. Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market. Management Science, 2008.